With two long-awaited 7s on the NBA roster today, there’s plenty of hype value to go around. We spotlighted Devin Booker on the glass, as well as Jalen Brunson – who might be caught coughing the ball up against the Phoenix defense.
It’s seventh heaven for NBA betting tonight with two massive do or die 7 scenarios on the board, hosting the Celtics, and visiting the Mavericks Suns for a ticket to the conference finals.
These big games have to bet on more than just spreads and totals, which means researching alternative betting odds in the NBA. We’ve filtered through 7 potential matches and scenarios, giving us our favorite free NBA player picks for Sunday, May 15.
NBA Player Props for May 15
The footage was taken on 5/15/2022 at 9:00 AM ET.
Click on each selection to go to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The probability tools below represent The best possibilities currently available Each market has regulated sportsbooks betting.
I know this is Jrue
Last week, I played the game Under on Jrue Holiday total score of 5 and got called up on Twitter, and rightfully so. My bet was on an ineffective and exhausting vacation to be road cool against Boston’s meager defense.
However, what I failed to take into account was that other than Giannis Antetokounmue, the Milwaukee Bucks had no one else to consistently score basketball. The holiday ended with 24 points in a rough 9-for-24 (4-for-7-deep) effort. I ate the crow while I got hit on the wallet.
The holiday followed that up with Night 7 vs. 17 Night (3 vs. 10 on three times) and just 17 total points in Game 6, which has his Game 7 points today dropping at 20.5 (over -118).
These 17 field goal attempts were the fewest collected in a holiday in a game of the series, after putting in just over 23 shots per game over the first five rounds. Milwaukee desperately needs more night than his veteran guard at Game 7 and his pre-game 6 run has his projected production of about 21.8 points for Sunday’s hour.
Holiday threw 10 shots out of the arc in Game 6 and could continue to take those long-range looks, telling the media that the Bucks have to find ways to get more three pointers against the Celtics’ cheerful defense packing the paint.
As the season approaches, the NBA champions will turn to the Vets, and Holiday will have plenty of opportunities to surpass his points total today.
pick or pickJrue Holiday: Over 20.5 points (-118)
Covers NBA betting analysis
poker on the board
The Phoenix Suns dominated the glass in this conference semi-final with the Dallas Mavericks, racking up a 54.7% bounce rate. And it wasn’t just that the front panels of Suns Arena were smashed. Guards like Devin Booker also participated in the bouncing rage.
Booker has averaged eight and seven rebounds in his last two games and averaged 5.7 rebounds for the series. The 6-foot-5 Kentucky producer doesn’t have to struggle with boxers on most fouls either, since Dallas’s petite ball spin is off the perimeter and several 3-point fouls bounce too long and reach a booker’s hand.
Defense is the main focus of Team Phoenix heading into Game 7. The last time these teams played in the center footprint, the Suns checked Dallas to shoot just 38% off the ground and 8 for only 32 from outside the arc, leaving plenty of rebounds. Up for grabs. The game total dropped 7 to 205 points and with both teams relying on defense to get the job done, bookmakers are expecting a good share of errors.
Poker’s total game 7 bounces between 4.5 (over -138) and 5.5 (over +115), depending on where you bet. Shop for a minimal total and put in a bit of sawn wood for a slimmer bouncy backing.
pick or pick: Devin Booker Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138)
Banking on Bronson’s Fatal Mistakes
Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson has done a very good job of limiting his errors, considering the company he’s keeping on the other side of the floor in this conference’s semi-finals.
The Suns are among the best defensive clubs in the NBA and impose 14.5 turns per competition per season (No. 7). For this series, Phoenix’s defensive density – or Dallas neglect – was greater inside the footprint center, forcing the Suns to average 15 turns compared to just 11.2 in the three games in Dallas.
That crucial split featured Bronson’s turnover stats for the series, with a total of eight gifts in those trips to the desert (2.7 tons per game) versus just three turnovers at home, including a clean sheet in Game 6.
Bronson plays a vital role in the Mavericks’ success in attack, as his attack with a sweet ball wrecked the Suns’ defense and scored vital points in the paint. He will continue to play into the key minutes and see the second biggest touches after Luka Doncic, so the probability of one or more spins is still high – especially in the 7 pressing game scenario.
The 1.5 turnover bet for Bronson is in no way a blow to his skill set, but more a bet on the value of playing on a prop that has a good chance of winning, knowing that Phoenix will throw Bronson’s kitchen sink tonight.
pick or pick: Galen Bronson over 1.5 spins (-110)
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